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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsGerrymandering's impact on the midterms for the mathematically challenged
(That includes me)
Republican seats added by Gerrymander:
TX +5
FL +4
TN +1
AL +1 (maybe)
LA +1
MO +1
NC +1
OH +1
Total= 14-15 seats
Dem seats added by redistricting:
CA +5
UT +1 (yes you read that right)
-
Total= 6 seats
Now subtract the Dem gains from Republican gains:
14-15 - 6 = 8-9 net seat gain for Republicans.
Right now, Republicans have a five seat margin in the house, however, five seats are vacant. If all those seats were filled, as they were on January 3, 2025, the margin would be 3 seats.
So, 3 seat margin, + 8-9 seat gain via gerrymandering = 11-12 seat hypothetical margin.
Except, Dems are projected to pickup a minimum of 20-30 seats.
That gives Dems, at the very, very, bare minimum an 8 seat majority.
Now, some folks are projecting Dems could pick up as many as 40-50 seats. In 2018, when Trumps approval ratings were higher than they are now, and inflation and the economy were doing much better, Dems picked up 40 seats.
And theres (at least) one more factor to consider:
All that republican gerrymandering required some solid red districts to be weakened, and some of the new red districts arent that strong.
Remember this: throughout the past year, 2024 Trump +20 districts were swinging 15-30 points towards the Dems in actual elections, not just opinion polls.
So, if they took a Trump +20 district and turned it into a Trump +5 district in order to create another Trump +5 district out of a formerly Harris +5 district
can you do the math?
(If you cant heres, what it means: Dems could win both of those districts by 10+ points, if overperformance trends hold)
Im not feeling cocky, Im not over confident, but based on the data, including the fact that the Trump-induced, Republican-enabled suffering spreading across all regional, racial and partisan boundaries is only going to increase in the next six months, I draw this conclusion:
Nothing can stop the Blue Tsunami in November
mr715
(4,051 posts)biophile
(1,530 posts)And I agree no one thing can stop the blue tsunami. But lots of little things can. Gerrymandering, voter suppression, voter roll purges, misinformation campaigns, disinformation campaigns, armed goons at voting sites, another pandemic, targeted terrorist attacks by domestic terrorists, and the list goes on. This has always been their approach- by any and all means.
Thank you for your optimistic posts. I very much hope you are correct yet again!
Fiendish Thingy
(23,902 posts)For example, in GA, voter suppression laws have been in effect since before the 2024 election, yet voters elected 3 democrats to a utilities commission that had been solid republican for 30+ years.
Ilikepurple
(780 posts)I do appreciate having this laid out for us.. Im cautiously optimistic for the reasons clearly stated by you that things will go well in spite of the recent gerrymandering, but Im not sure what tactical edge certainty in the face of uncertainty gives us. I do like the enthusiasm though and your post lifted my spirits in light of recent redistricting successes and failures by the two parties.
Fiendish Thingy
(23,902 posts)It could impact republicans as much or more than Dems, depending a lot a variables, some controllable, some not.
Lovie777
(23,564 posts)Americans are pissed. Over turning an election, it's will not fly.
Friends in VA, are angry.
The country is not happy. We are run by psychopaths - current government, US SC.
Fiendish Thingy
(23,902 posts)Virginia, despite todays ruling, looks to flip at least 2 seats, possibly up to 4 seats that are with that 15-30 point over performance margin.
ecstatic
(35,131 posts)I just feel a little deflated. I'm sitting here wondering if people in "red" districts are bothered at all by what we're seeing. This is disgusting stuff. Anyone paying attention shouldn't be OK with other Americans being treated this way. A great way to show their disapproval would be to vote blue, even if they normally vote red. I guess we'll see.
Fiendish Thingy
(23,902 posts)Many of the Dem wins over the past year would be mathematically impossible without republicans voting blue.
gab13by13
(32,664 posts)Intractable
(2,357 posts)Fiendish Thingy
(23,902 posts)gab13by13
(32,664 posts)and the governor stopped the election so that the legislature could gerrymander. This cannot be swept under the rug with the notion that people will be pissed at what Magats did in Louisiana.
3 million people in Virginia went to the polls and voted to draw up new maps. The Va. SC nullified the election, nullified the will of the people of Virginia. This must not be swept under the rug by saying what 3 Magat judges did will piss people off in Virginia. We have to hope that the Supreme Court overturns the Va. SC.
Magat controlled states are not even bothering to put redistricting up for a vote, the state legislatures are simply passing new maps. This cannot just be swept under the rug. Democratic states that use non-partisan commissions to draw their maps are going to have to fight fire with fire and do away with these commissions to compensate for what Magat states are doing.
Everything is not coming up roses, we need to bring a gun to a gun fight.
FoxNewsSucks
(11,907 posts)I'd like to be optimistic, but I'm more realistic. They know all those things too. And will work to overcome whatever we do. So I don't see it as helpful when some say "we just need to GOTV" and then sit back and relax.
Also, MAGAts don't care if they piss us off. I think they actually enjoy that.
gab13by13
(32,664 posts)Tennessee just redrew Memphis, sliced it up into 3 pieces and ran the pieces out into rural red Magat country.
The next step will be to remove voting machines in Memphis and move them to rural Magat country which will create 6 hour voting lines in the city.
...or send in ICE agents to polling places in the city to cause havoc.
Saying everything will be just fine condones rigging elections.
FoxNewsSucks
(11,907 posts)They never stop. I'd like to be optimistic, but I really can't.
Fiendish Thingy
(23,902 posts)Im not claiming, nor is anyone else I can see, that Dems will win because people are pissed off at gerrymandering.
Dems will win, are winning, because in addition to having a more motivated voter base, The Trump-induced, republican- enabled, suffering is spreading across all regional, racial and partisan boundaries.
The shitty economy is making everybody miserable, and they are blaming republicans.
That, in a nutshell, is why Dems are going to win.
gab13by13
(32,664 posts)Krasnov will burn it all down and then People will vote for Democrats?
That's a bad strategy. Our house (country) is on fire we shouldn't stand back and let it burn down and then blame the arsonists.
Fiendish Thingy
(23,902 posts)JFC
Im telling you that right now the people are blaming the republicans for their suffering, and thats going to help Democrats win in November.
This is a thread about the impact of gerrymandering on the midterm elections.
With that context in mind, what the hell does this mean:
That's a bad strategy. Our house (country) is on fire we shouldn't stand back and let it burn down and then blame the arsonists.
Im not saying Dems should do nothing else because people are so pissed, that Dems dont need to campaign (that seems to be what youre implying)
To paraphrase Dean Wormer: hyperbolic black and white thinking is no way to go through life.
If you want to start a thread about activism and what the people can do between now and the election, go right ahead.
Response to gab13by13 (Reply #10)
Fiendish Thingy This message was self-deleted by its author.
Strelnikov_
(8,190 posts)voting patterns in 24. All signs are, they have lost the Hispanic vote.
Someone here noted that 80 GOP seats were won by 10% or less in 24. With the margins we are seeing in special elections, as you note . . .
gab13by13
(32,664 posts)Fiendish Thingy
(23,902 posts)To me rigging means altering vote totals.
Yes there is suppression, gerrymandering and ratfuckery aplenty, but when you use the term rigging, that implies a helplessness of the voters, of the people, and its simply not true.
gab13by13
(32,664 posts)When the conditions for voting are different for Democrats than for Republicans, that is rigging. When Democrats have to wait for 6 - 7 hours to cast a vote and republicans don't that is rigging.
The governor of Louisiana canceled an election where thousands of people had already voted nullifying their votes, that is rigging.
By the bye, Kamala Harris won the election.
littlemissmartypants
(34,234 posts)I never count my hatches before they chicken.
But thank you for the discussion, Fiendish Thingy.
Fiendish Thingy
(23,902 posts)Since the Biden economy was doing so well.
But now, everyone is suffering, and they are blaming republicans.
gab13by13
(32,664 posts)Fiendish Thingy
(23,902 posts)9 million fewer people voted, and she lost- she admits she lost, her attorney Marc Elias admits she lost, but somehow you (and Rudy in 2020) know more about the election than the states that certified the votes?
Plenty of theories, but no evidence.
As Joe would say, Cmon man, thats a bunch of malarkey.
Refusing to accept reality can be crippling in many ways.
Youve made numerous barely coherent, thread hijacking posts to my OP - why not take a breath and see if theres another topic somewhere else you can passionately discuss.
Isnt it almost midnight your time?
ColoringFool
(986 posts)Norrrm
(5,454 posts)
Fiendish Thingy
(23,902 posts)And thats not happening.
While republicans are definitely tilting the playing field, there are going to be (already have been) some surprises when the votes are counted.
mr715
(4,051 posts)When you win those light pink districts and the media narrative is how Trump is a wounded President and there is a mandate for change, relentlessly fight to expose the corruption and perversion of the courts. Make it a salient issue for everyone, not just the pseudo-wonks.
Make it so should we win the White House in 2028, we can erase Trump and protect our republic in the wake of what he has done.
When McConnell blocked Garland, the mistake Obama made was not putting forward a new appointment every day for the remaining 752 of his Presidency.
Now that the gloves are off, the Democrats need to reign in these extreme judicial activists.
mr715
(4,051 posts)Blue wins when a lot of those red boxes flip.
NoMoreRepugs
(12,214 posts)Fiendish Thingy
(23,902 posts)Boo1
(440 posts)are also all assuming that their votes fall like it's 2024. It's not. It's almost certain that some of the new districts will end up going D.
mr715
(4,051 posts)many, many of them.
Many.