The idea that traders are ultimately driving the market is now no longer supportable. Traders can drive short term trends. But there are two factors that are maintaining an upward pressure:

1) Mechanical investors. People like me. People who invest in broad index funds on a regular basis REGARDLESS of what the market is doing. Market up? Buy. Market flat? Buy. Market down? Buy. Always Be Buying. The idea is simple.... if I need the money at some future point, then don;t sweat ashort twrm trends... the long term trend is up and to the right. Estimate are that mechanical investors are between 30-40% of the trade volume. Pretty powerful.
2) Buy the Dip automation. Lots of investors, both retail, and professional, have automated "buy the dip" algorithms. It's why we're seeing such strong V-shaped recoveries. When the market takes a tumble, automated routines are monitoring for "buying opportunities." When the market drops far enough, these automated routines trigger buying. Lots of it. Up goes the market. It forces a general reversion to the mean.

Does that mean there can't be crashes or bear markets? No. Systemic failures can still cause those. But I'm not sure that the ordinary bear markets will be nearly as common. The other factor? Inflation. If inflation spikes (see 2022), some larger investors will avoid equities in the short term, shifting to other assets until inflation subsides.

So my thought is that I ignore most market flucuations. I've been ABB through all this mess. BUT... I'm keeping an eye on inflation. So far, inflation has not spiked quickly. But that could change. If it does, I may consider a shift to less sensitive assets for some portion of my portfolio until the orange asshole is finished ruining the economy.

I think you are whistling past the graveyard.

My other options aren't very attractive. I rode out the dot.com crash. I rode out 2008-9. 2022 as well. My portfolio is fine... better than fine. So long as I have a recovery horizon, I am not worried.

there may not be a recovery horizon. Some crashes take years to recover.

to have 12-24 months of spending needs from your portfolio in cash, or near-cash instruments. You can spend from those and avoid forced sales. When the market recovers, you can replenish your spending bucket.

Of course, it's possible that a prolonged downturn will still hurt you, but this approach limits the damage.

into fixed rate soon after TSF got into office.

I'll by back in when he is gone. After the crash I am sure he will cause.

... BUT - and I mean this with no disrespect or rancor - isn't that kind of exhausting? - ... constantly having to monitor and second-guess what people you don't know are doing and may yet do? unless you like it, and I know people that thrive on it, it seems like an uphill battle or running to stand still. Stocks, bonds, etc, to me are best as a silent investment, like a fruit tree or even an orchard, vs a patch of greens in a garden in rocky soil in a wild place.

Nevertheless - Good luck, happy returns!

Krasnov has been on a crusade to get interest rates to zero. His new pick for Fed chair had to pass a "lower interest rates test" to be nominated. Krasnov is fighting to keep Jerome Powell from staying on the Fed.

Krasnov wants low interest rates to crash the dollar and boost crypto. Crashing the dollar will mean that consumers can't but as much at Walmart.

The prices of gasoline and diesel have also been manipulated to stay lower than they should be.

The markets are believing that the Iran war is going to end sooner rather than later, that bubble is about to burst.

Everything is backing up, pretty soon the markets won't be able to hide the fact that Krasnov destroyed our economy.

Putin must be so proud of agent Krasnov.

the AI Bubble and the next Black Swan event (which aren't as rare as the name indicates)