First, Mr. Trump went to war with Iran, opening a rift with prominent leaders of his MAGA movement, who accused him of breaking his “America First” campaign promise. Perhaps more crucially for independent voters, the war has spiked gas prices and rattled the economy.

Next, Mr. Trump angered some Christians with a profane social media post on Easter Sunday that demanded that Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Two days later, his pledge to bring mass destruction to Iran brought fresh condemnation from across the political spectrum.

Some now say that Mr. Trump’s display of animosity toward Leo will further erode his support among the Catholic voters in Rust Belt states, suburbs and border counties who moved toward the Republican Party in the 2024 election.

White Catholics, whose support helped propel Mr. Trump to a second term, remain one of the country’s largest swing voting groups. Small shifts in their voting could have an outsize impact on competitive House and Senate races in Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin, where they make up a significant portion of the electorate.