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PufPuf23

(9,819 posts) Sun Mar 22, 2026, 04:15 PM 8 hrs ago

Is coffee the new cocoa? Some expect coffee prices to also crash.

Sort of some good news maybe.

From Reuters.

Is coffee the new cocoa? Some expect coffee prices to also crash

By Marcelo Teixeira; March 18, 20263:04 AM PDT, Updated March 19, 2026

Summary

Coffee prices expected to fall like cocoa, industry experts say

High coffee prices hurt demand, leading to cost-cutting measures

Brazil's record coffee crop may not pressure prices much

TAMPA, Florida, March 18 (Reuters) - Some coffee industry experts have been drawing comparisons between the coffee and cocoa markets, projecting that coffee prices will sink in coming months, just as cocoa prices crashed after the chocolate-making ‌ingredient hit an all-time high in 2024.

Whether coffee will replicate cocoa's downward price curve was a focus of discussions at last week's annual convention of the National Coffee Association in Tampa, Florida.

"I would be shocked if it did not happen," said Carley Garner, senior commodities strategist at DeCarley Trading, a division of Zaner. "I do think coffee is the new cocoa," she said.

Complete article at: https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/is-coffee-new-cocoa-some-expect-coffee-prices-also-crash-2026-03-18/

4 replies

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Highlight:

Is coffee the new cocoa? Some expect coffee prices to also crash. (Original Post) PufPuf23 8 hrs ago OP

Um, isn't the price in the US still subject to TRANSPORTATION costs of a product? Attilatheblond 8 hrs ago #1

Tend to agree with you, that coffee will go up rather than down. PufPuf23 8 hrs ago #2

Seems An Odd Comparison ProfessorGAC 8 hrs ago #3

Interesting.. Especially since I have a year's worth of beans in the freezer... hlthe2b 7 hrs ago #4

Attilatheblond

(8,835 posts)

1. Um, isn't the price in the US still subject to TRANSPORTATION costs of a product?

Reply to PufPuf23 (Original post)

Sun Mar 22, 2026, 04:18 PM

8 hrs ago

That cost is going up not down, due to Trump blowing things up in the fossil fuel sector in the Middle East.

PufPuf23

(9,819 posts)

2. Tend to agree with you, that coffee will go up rather than down.

Reply to Attilatheblond (Reply #1)

Sun Mar 22, 2026, 04:24 PM

8 hrs ago

Coffee already is more expensive.

I do not see a price drop of chocolate in retail markets.

In our economy that preys on the poor, producers may have decreased costs of beans but will use any savings for more profit margins from consumer sales.

ProfessorGAC

(76,602 posts)

3. Seems An Odd Comparison

Reply to PufPuf23 (Original post)

Sun Mar 22, 2026, 04:27 PM

8 hrs ago

Cocoa went up due to supply constraints caused by low yields, storms & (as I recall) string El Nino conditions.
Coffee prices spiked more due to tariffs, I believe. The Brazilian crop was very strong & prices went up anyway.
Seems like comparing the cost of grass seed to guitars.

hlthe2b

(113,807 posts)

4. Interesting.. Especially since I have a year's worth of beans in the freezer...