The OPEC Plus has agreed to dramatically increase production, so oil should not have moved this much. What do traders know that we don't know?

Trump's crew is definitely front running this.

There's the fact that OPEC still hasn't increase production to the point they promised over a year ago. There's also the issue that the strait is by all objective measures, closed. Oh, and like 75% of the oilfields are within range of Iranian missiles, not to mention proxy groups that could attack them as well. That's not really an IF, but a when.

Besides all of that, this war is already involving essentially every Arab nation in some way. That's not going to happen and oil prices not skyrocket.

Is that it is a strong alliance that works cooperatively. Not actually the case, most of the time. Historically, the members cheat on their quotas, especially when prices are low because oil suppliers need the revenue.

Every member of OPEC hates Iran, and many Sunnis consider the Shiites to be infidels.Iran being cut off from selling oil just means more for everyone else.

Are immaterial. How will the Saudis increase production when Iranian missiles and drones start knocking down their oil infrastructure?

for April contract (was up about $5 earlier in day).

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html

Dow futures down about 300 now, from down 550 a couple of hours ago.

Bottom line, volatile markets for foreseeable future(s). Best to hang on - no panic selling.

The likely outcome is that Trump finds Iran's Delcy Rodriguez, an authoritarian with the existing regime that will cut a deal with Trump personally for a percentage of the oil revenue and then Trump will lift sanctions.

The Iranian regime would be phenomenally stupid to try to slug it out with us. Just pay off Trump and then they can do whatever they want.

short bitcoin in the morning?