Citing data from Seala, a Russian energy markets analysis agency, the Russian business daily RBC reported that nearly 40 percent of the country’s refining capacity remains idle, mainly due to repairs after attacks.

“Attacks by Ukrainian drones are the main cause and account for up to 70 percent of the shutdowns,” Seala’s Vladimir Nikitin said, noting that scheduled maintenance on some facilities has been pushed back in a scramble to keep refineries running.....

Russia’s fuel market is facing a shortfall equal to about 20 percent of monthly gasoline demand — roughly 400,000 tons out of the 2 million consumed — the Kommersant business daily reported, and consumers are starting to feel it. Roughly 1 in 50 gas stations have stopped selling gasoline as nationwide production has dropped by about 10 percent......

The government has extended its ban on gasoline and diesel exports until year’s end as supply disruptions have affected at least 10 regions.AI Icon Crimea, which Russia illegally annexed from Ukraine in 2014, has been hit the hardest, forcing the Russia-installed governor to limit gasoline sales to eight gallons per person in late September and then again to five gallons on Wednesday.
“This can lead to an uncontrollable growth of social tension — you can lull people into a state of clam by saying that we will beat everyone in the war on TV or that the shops are full of products,” Russian economist Vyacheslav Shiryaev said. “But it’s different with gasoline when your car just stops after five stations don’t have fuel.”.....

“It’s important to consider these two situations together, because gasoline is the blood of the economy,” he said of the fuel crisis against the backdrop of an increased budget gap.

“I wouldn’t go as far as saying Putin has no money to fight, but he doesn’t have the money to fight the same way he had in 2024 and the beginning of 2025,” Shiryaev said, adding that if Russia moves to buy more expensive gasoline from China or Singapore, it will have to subsidize domestic sales, dampening the efforts to balance the budget.