Higher stakes, a Fed 'flying blind,' and a 'data desert': Why this government shutdown would actually matter

It's hard to believe, but we've made it almost seven years without a government shutdown. That shutdown happened during President Trump's first term. And it was the longest in US history.

Ever since, throughout the rest of Trump's first term and under former President Joe Biden, we've been in a perennial state of "will they, won't they," and for the most part investors and the market have become desensitized to the drama after a string of last-minute compromises to avert the self-inflicted wound.

But we're here to tell you that this time really could be different. It will (again, probably) actually matter, even with the usual caveats: Past shutdowns have represented a modest hit to economic growth, and little if any longer-term pain for markets, which rightfully don't typically care.

The first reason it will matter is that — stop us if you've heard this before — it looks all but certain to happen. The government will enter a partial shutdown just after midnight on Wednesday, Oct. 1, and both Trump/Republicans and Democrats are digging in on their respective positions. Moreover, as Yahoo Finance's Ben Werschkul has outlined, both parties see some political upside.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/higher-stakes-a-fed-flying-blind-and-a-data-desert-why-this-government-shutdown-would-actually-matter-100034545.html