I posted that elsewhere but it applies here too.

They’ve ran on this and used it to appease the QAnon nuts (like MTG) when they had to know there was nothing there. Epstein was held during Trump’s first term. They had to know what was or wasn’t actually available in terms of evidence. Oh and of course they are projecting like no one else can.

to something going horribly wrong. Some things have already gone horribly but expectedly wrong, or are about to - like the damage to the economy from unnecessary and random tariffs and the deportation of the work force of the agriculture, service and construction industries. But the Epstein debacle came out of nowhere. Epstein is dead, Maxwell is in prison, and nobody was talking about them except MAGA, which flogged the conspiracy theory that The Files contained dirt on prominent Democrats. If Trump and AG Barbie hadn't gone along with the conspiracy and promised the release of the files and then suddenly said, Oh no, there's nothing to see, never mind - apparently upon learning Trump's name was all over the files. And MAGA goes nuts, the GOPers freak out and the whole thing blows up. Of course Trump did it to himself, but the sudden explosion of this thing came out of nowhere and seems to be about to derail everything else Trump is up to. Maybe it's at least a gray swan.

I didn’t really address that in my post. It did come out of nowhere on them because they thought they had put it away. MAGA has always followed what he tells them to think or do so he assumed that would continue. It did not.

But, other than annoying the hell out of him, I don’t see how any lasting personal damage can come out of this.

It won’t result in his impeachment and removal, or facing criminal charges after he leaves office (unless there is no statute of limitation for sexual assault of a minor). I guess he could face a civil suit, but E. Jean Carroll and Trump will both probably die before she sees a penny of her settlement.

So the worst that could happen is a bunch of MAGA cultists abandon Trump and Dems win big in the midterms, which would give Trump an excuse to move to Mar A Lago for the rest of his term.

he's not beyond personal ego damage, which matters more to him than anything else; and he will let everybody else swing in the wind to protect his ego. The files might not contain any direct evidence that he assaulted any girls - at least not enough to place him in legal jeopardy - but whatever is there is bound to make him look like he did. The tangible political damage will be to the GOP, but at this point I doubt Trump cares.

a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory

will come from the GOP.

Someone betrayed one or more of the others, or "the trumpcoin bounced"