Republicans in Texas are apparently going all in on an unusual, high-stakes mid-cycle redistricting effort to bolster their chances of holding the House of Representatives next year. But redrawing the maps could just as easily backfire and cause Republicans to lose otherwise impregnable seats, leading to a situation worse than the status quo.

President Trump said on a private call on Tuesday that he believes Texas could redistrict in such a way that would provide a net gain of five Republican seats. The White House has been pushing for such a plan for weeks. If successful, that could offset the usual losses for the party in power in the midterms. State leaders like Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) have signed on to the effort.

State officials in Texas have readied a special legislative session that starts next week, which will include redistricting. Gov. Greg Abbott (R) cited “constitutional concerns raised by the U.S. Department of Justice” in adding redistricting to the special session. This is the opposite of truth. The Justice Department did file a lawsuit over Texas congressional maps in 2021, alleging that nonwhite voters were underrepresented, but the Trump administration dropped federal participation in that challenge in March.

Only on June 30 did DOJ send Abbott a letter claiming that four districts in the state are illegal racial gerrymanders. The letter effectively says that Texas Republicans, who spent four years inside courtrooms insisting that their maps were race-blind, disadvantaged white voters in 2021, and now must remedy their mistake.