Michael McFaul: Why Is Trump Acting like Putin's Agent?

https://michaelmcfaul.substack.com/p/why-is-trump-acting-like-putins-agent

For more than three decades, the United States has supported democratic Ukraine. That was true in 1991 after the collapse of the Soviet Union; in 2004 during Ukraine’s Orange Revolution; in 2013-14 during Ukraine’s Revolution of Dignity and Putin’s first invasion of Ukraine and seizure of Crimea; and again in 2022, after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In the war between democratic Ukraine and autocratic Russia, there was never any ambiguity about which side the United States supported…until Trump.

In his first term, President Trump never expressed much enthusiasm about Ukraine, even if members of his administration did. After all, it was during the first Trump administration that the United States delivered the first shipment of anti-tank Javelin missiles. In his second term, however, Trump turned hard against Ukraine and for Russia. To his credit, Trump and his new team have tried to end the war in Ukraine. I applaud that effort. They have engaged in negotiations with Russian and Ukrainian officials, including taking the controversial (but necessary) step of talking directly to Putin and his team. But as these negotiations unfold, it is becoming increasingly clear that Trump and his team are no longer supporters of Ukraine and are not acting as honest brokers. Instead, their words and actions support Putin. They are acting like Putin’s agents, trying to compel Ukraine to surrender, rather than mediate an outcome in which both sides must compromise to get a deal on a ceasefire. (A permanent end to the war still seems very far away.)

For Putin, all that Trump and his team have offered are carrots. Secretary Rubio and Foreign Minister Lavrov restored high-level bilateral relations at a meeting in Saudi Arabia. Trump’s team also signaled that they would block Ukraine’s membership in NATO. They have hinted at their intention to lift sanctions on Russia. Trump and his team have ended all funding for Russian civil society and independent media operating in exile, as well as Voice of America and Radio Free Europe, which produce content for Russian audiences (though the courts have frozen some of these actions). Shockingly, Trump instructed his diplomats at the United Nations to vote against resolutions criticizing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, putting the United States on the same side as Russia, Belarus, North Korea, and a handful of other rogue states. Even the People’s Republic of China voted to abstain on these resolutions. Most importantly to Putin, the Trump administration has made clear that it will accept Russia’s occupation of parts of Ukraine. Most recently, Trump added a new major concession: US recognition of Crimea as part of Russia.

Why Trump offered this latest concession is hard for me to understand. Did Putin ask Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, for it? Did Putin ask for this concession because he had nothing left on his list to ask for? And why did Trump agree to it? After all, anyone with any knowledge of Ukrainian domestic politics knows that debates about the recognition of Russia’s claims over Crimea would only exacerbate tensions and delay negotiations. Is that the intention? What American national interest is advanced by recognizing Crimea as part of Russia? The downsides are clear to me: (1) It is a reputational hit to the US in the world; (2) Legitimizes use of force for annexation and encourages others to do so (think Taiwan); (3) Fosters division among our allies (a gift to Putin); (4) Fosters division within American society (gift to Putin and Xi); and (5) Alienates Ukrainians. I hope that Trump is still serious about trying to negotiate a ceasefire. I fear he is looking for an excuse to quit the negotiations, blame Zelenskyy for not accepting the American proposal, and thereby deliver another win for Putin.

*snip*