2016 Postmortem

In the first two graphs, positive is red shift results in relation to polls, negative and the votes turn out bluer than predicted. What are the odds of it being almost all red or blue are astronomical. 2004 was considered out of the realm of probability (margin of error), yet not one state was 5% off. 2016 is very anomalous, more than double the red shift of 2004.

These are key states with competitive Dem-Repube Senate races, so they meet a certain polling threshold--they all were polled. The battleground is the most robust polling with a large pool of exit poll respondents and a few good pre-election polls averaged. It is noteworthy how well the battleground polls match. The vote counts are so different that if true, the exit polls and other polling was not only flawed but also flawed with the same bias, blue shifted.

The third chart is a one-hundred-year electoral college history of winning margins. It shows the extreme deviation of the 2016 election from the usual election results.